Prospective evaluation over 15 years of six breast cancer risk models

SX Li; RL Milne; T Nguyen-Dumont; DR English; GG Giles; MC Southey; AC Antoniou; A Lee; I Winship; JL Hopper; MB Terry; RJ Macinnis

Journal article

Prospective evaluation over 15 years of six breast cancer risk models

SX Li, RL Milne, T Nguyen-Dumont, DR English, GG Giles, MC Southey, AC Antoniou, A Lee, I Winship, JL Hopper, MB Terry, RJ Macinnis

Cancers | Published : 2021

DOI: 10.3390/cancers13205194

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Abstract

Prospective validation of risk models is needed to assess their clinical utility, particularly over the longer term. We evaluated the performance of six commonly used breast cancer risk models (IBIS, BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, BRCAPRO-BCRAT, BCRAT, and iCARE-lit). 15-year risk scores were estimated using lifestyle factors and family history measures from 7608 women in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study who were aged 50–65 years and unaffected at commencement of follow-up two (conducted in 2003–2007), of whom 351 subsequently developed breast cancer. Risk discrimination was assessed using the C-statistic and calibration using the expected/observed number of incident cases across the spectrum of..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Roger Milne Author

Tu Nguyen Author

Dallas English Author

Graham Giles Author

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Grants

Awarded by Cancer Council Victoria

Funding Acknowledgements

This work was primarily supported by grant 1129136 from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC). MCCS cohort recruitment was funded by Cancer Council Victoria and VicHealth. The MCCS was further supported by Australian NHMRC grants 209057, 396414 and 1074383, and ongoing follow-up and data management has been funded by Cancer Council Victoria since 1995. Cases and their vital status were ascertained through the Victorian Cancer Registry and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, including the National Death Index and the Australian Cancer Database. TN-D is a recipient of a Career Development Fellowship from the National Breast Cancer Foundation, Australia (ECF-17-001). JLH and MCS are Senior Principal and Senior Research Fellows of the National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia), respectively. ACA and AJL are supported by grants from Cancer Research UK (C12292/A20861 and PPRPGM-Nov20\100002).